Trade

September 27, 2021  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (September 25, 2021)

Pleased to join the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel for a third time in September, alongside Sherena Hussain, Dennis Mitchell, and John Northcott, talking vaccine passports, post-election priorities, and the tenuous circumstances of Chinese real estate conglomerate, Evergrande.  Our segment was bookended with coverage of the release of Canada’s Two Michaels from China, after Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou reached a deferred prosecution agreement in the US, resulting in extradition charges being dropped (a story that we covered on the Business Panel in December, 2018).

Some thoughts around our discussion:

COVID19 has brought significant challenges for businesses, especially those with limited resources.  Vaccine passports are another area where business leaders need to plan effectively for implementation, in order to ensure smooth operations.  In considering this issue, ensuring a safe workplace for staff and customers is nothing new, nor is the ability to determine, within reason, how a company will deliver its services.  In the case of customers, it is not uncommon in a civilized society to be required to prove identity or status in certain situations, such as entering an establishment where alcohol is served, renting a car, or traveling to another country.  A vaccine passport is analogous to these situations, as well as numerous others, and those who do not wish to utilize it have other options (stay home, order takeout food, shop online, etc.).  Business leaders also have an opportunity to consider the use of contracted security staff or, perhaps, technology solutions, when requesting vaccine passport information, and should not hesitate to seek professional advice for an objective viewpoint.  One area where everyone should be able to agree is the importance of putting the pandemic behind us; there is no benefit to giving COVID19 a home in our communities.

Related to this point, now that the Federal election is over, Job #1 should be making the pandemic history.  Key steps include reviewing and extending financial programs where appropriate, as well as taking the necessary steps to support vulnerable areas, such as healthcare and essential pandemic related sources of supply (and building capacity within Canada).  Going forward, increased support for commercialization of Canada’s innovation and technology economy should be a priority, to build companies of scale that are well positioned to operate globally.  Of note, commercialization efforts should be focused primarily on “building a business”, including access to sufficient growth capital.

And, finally, as the world watches China’s Evergrande struggle to meet its financial obligations, it is a good time to remember that “big business” is not without challenges.  Small businesses often have the view that “growth” and “sales” will solve all of their problems, but this isn’t the case.  Large (or larger) companies face numerous challenges, many of which are the same types of problems that are experienced by small business, but played out on a larger scale.  Keep in mind that the more that a company has, the more that is at stake, which can represent significant risk.  When smaller companies make it a habit to put the necessary foundational systems, policies, and procedures in place, they have the beginnings of what is needed to support future growth and sustainability.

Thank you for watching, on what was a very busy news morning; see you again soon!

 

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November 9, 2020  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (November, 2020)

What a historic day to join the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, within a mere hour of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris being projected to win the Presidency and Vice Presidency of the United States.  As someone who has closely followed US politics for decades, it’s a pleasure to have this opportunity.

Our discussion, including Elmer Kim, Mark Warner, and John Northcott, focused on what had become Election Week in the US, with a handful of remaining states continuing to count the final ballots to determine who would win the Presidency.  With all eyes on Pennsylvania, it proved to be the defining factor, at 11:24 AM ET, on November 7, 2020.

What could a Biden Administration mean to Canadian companies?  With the US as our largest trading partner by far, Canada has faced uncertainty over the last four years, from an administration that imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, bluster around the negotiation of NAFTA 2.0 (both have been Business Panel topics), as well as limited attention overall, focusing instead on countries outside of traditional US allies.  The US response to COVID19 has been devastating, with the highest number of cases and deaths globally, resulting in significant job losses, companies closing, and many households in peril.  What could the future look like?

Once the proverbial dust settles in areas such as election related legal disputes and the transition of power (which might not be particularly easy, depending on whether the current administration decides to continue to fight or, instead, brush off the White House as not being particularly important and move on to something else), it’s a reasonable expectation that a Biden Administration would quickly move to combat and manage the coronavirus in a manner that has not been seen in the US thus far, as well as reconnect with traditional allies who have been of limited focus over the last four years.  Joe Biden is well suited to this type of conversation, recalling childhood advice to “keep the faith”, but to also spread it around.

Canada and its business community should expect to see a better level of stability with its neighbour and a more collaborative, productive relationship.  It’s difficult to predict the impact on the longstanding Keystone XL pipeline, however, politicians have a way of keeping their options open, especially when times are tough.  Infrastructure and similar projects have the potential to create a significant number of jobs, which is especially relevant, given the massive number of job losses in 2020 due to COVID19.  Also, expect an increased focus on “kitchen table” issues, including employment and wages, as we know that these are areas that are very close to Joe Biden’s heart, as the stories of job losses in his own family have been told many times.

It has been said that changes in leadership have the potential to bring a level of uncertainty that is counterproductive and risky.  In this case, the circumstances may be different, as what has been a tumultuous last four years fades into the past; but, we are not quite there yet.  The US remains as a country that is highly divided, bringing to mind an important reality that experienced business leaders know: deals often get done “in the middle”, when parties are able to arrive at solutions that allow both sides to win.  In the absence of the necessary skills and experience to arrive at this point, little is achieved, with potential and lost opportunity being left on the table.  Think about the practical implications of what is lost in this type of situation, including in terms of new paths forward and dollars and cents.  In the meantime, all eyes will be on what will unfold up until Inauguration Day in January.

Finally, in advance of Remembrance Day on November 11th, we honour the service and sacrifice of those who have given so much, allowing us to be True North, Strong and Free, every single day.  We will remember them.

 

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December 16, 2019  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (December, 2019)

Closing out 2019 in studio for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, alongside Sherena Hussain and Natasha Fatah (aka The Women in Blue!).

Here’s what was on our Holiday Season menu:

  • New NAFTA Reaches the Finish Line:  As Canada, the US, and Mexico agree to some final revisions, what are the next steps for New NAFTA?  What does it mean for Canadian companies?
  • Compensation Rules for Flight Delays Kick In:  Air travel passengers in Canada will now have the potential for compensation in the event of some flight delays, but will it be meaningful?
  • More Ontario Cannabis Shops on the Way:  Removing the cap on the number of cannabis shops in Ontario might be an opportunity to better meet market demand, but are there other important considerations?

Negotiation of a new trade deal between Canada, the US, and Mexico has been unfolding over the past year and a half and has not been an easy task.  Given that Democrats control the House in the US, they were in a position to push for revision in order to support ratification and the countries were able to find agreement around clauses pertaining to dispute resolution, environmental, prescription drug, and labour provisions.  In particular, Mexico will have to take steps to improve the labour environment in that country, an area that has been contentious, given its ability to provide an inexpensive workforce and displace jobs.  Deals are one thing; it will be interesting, however, to see how well implementation occurs, once all countries have ratified what is effectively NAFTA 2.1.

Speaking from experience, we live in a world where air travelers tend to feel like they have no rights, especially in those moments when they are not treated particularly well (cue to the herding cattle analogy).  Air travelers are essentially at the mercy of airlines when delays happen, as there are limited alternative to get from one location to another.  Effective December 15, 2019, airlines will now have to compensate passengers in delay situations that are within their control, guidelines that likely have Canadians wondering if they are worth much, in practical terms.  It is important for passengers to know their rights when traveling, keep track of travel documentation, and ask airlines for clarification, when needed.  From a fairness perspective, good communication and transparency are important, however, too many of us know what it is like to be delayed in an airport with little in the way of information sharing.

As the cannabis industry continues to evolve, Ontario’s decision to remove the cap on retail shops is an area to watch.  Although studies indicate market demand, successfully operating a company is something that is quite different.  Business leaders too often make the mistake of thinking that a product alone makes a company, when nothing could be further from the truth.  We can all think of stores, restaurants, or coffee shops that opened too many locations, only to have to retrench to a more appropriate number; this type of downsizing can be onerous and expensive.  The same mistakes could be made here; this time, with a highly regulated product that requires special attention of its own.

As 2019 comes to a close, it’s a good time to be thankful for this past year.  It has been my pleasure to appear on the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, work that is both fun and a privilege.  Thanks for watching and see you in 2020, a year that is sure to bring a host of interesting developments, to say the least; stay tuned!

 

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January 28, 2019  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (January, 2019)

Starting off the New Year in studio for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, alongside John Northcott and Elmer Kim.


As our world continues to experience economic, political, and technological change, our discussion reflected just that:

  • Turmoil in Venezuela.  In the face of leadership uncertainty and devastating economic and social challenges, potential US sanctions could significantly impact Venezuela’s oil industry.  What could this mean for Canada?
  • Ontario enhances autonomous vehicle pilot program.   Changes to an existing program will now allow some automated vehicles on public roads with just a passenger on board or a remote operator monitoring the vehicle.  When could we expect to see these vehicles on the road?

The Venezuela story is a reminder that developments in far away countries can impact us here in Canada, including in terms of business and the economy.  In the event that Venezuelan oil exports are sanctioned by the US, refineries in that country will be seeking supply to meet the needs of their operations.  Canadian crude oil could fill this gap, however, meeting such opportunities successfully requires more than just identifying solutions at a high level.  Logistical challenges and limitations have been in the news for some time and relate to the need for Canada to continue to focus on developing a global trade strategy for oil.  This approach raises the likelihood that opportunities could be successfully met as they arise; it is also simply good business.

The advancement of riderless cars, one step closer to being approved for regular road use, reminds us that the future is now.  Although there is still additional work to do in terms of testing and refinement, the practical use of autonomous vehicles represents tremendous change for many, including car manufacturers, insurers, companies that utilize vehicles and drivers, and consumers.  Are they ready?  I expect that many are facing the need to work quickly to keep up with the pace of these exciting developments.

And so, 2019 begins, with what should be an interesting year.  Special thanks to CBC News Network for the on-air mention of my new book, Defusing the Family Business Time Bomb; I sincerely appreciate it!

 

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December 17, 2018  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (December, 2018)

Closing out 2018 in studio for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, alongside Elmer Kim and John Northcott.  This week, we focused on the business implications of the ongoing Huawei saga, which became part of the news cycle earlier this month with the detaining of the company’s CFO, Meng Wanzhou.

China’s concern over Meng’s circumstances has been playing out through a range of potential threats to companies, such as Apple and Canada Goose.  Actions that could arise include boycotting iPhone purchases, while Canada Goose has already faced a falling share price and delays in opening its new store in China.

This situation could also bring complications to the current 90 day “quiet period” between China and the US, in an attempt to arrive at a trade agreement that could bring more favourable terms than the recent past of escalating tariffs and other troubles.  While the two largest economies in the world seem poised for an uncertain relationship, with Canada facing warring words of its own from China, the news isn’t all bad. In the event that China cannot come to a reasonable trade resolution with the US, it will have to continue to procure goods to support its own economy, with a need to look beyond its regular trading partners.

Here are some things that Canadian companies should think about, in terms of balancing the opportunity and risk associated with the Chinese (or any new) market:

  • Bring a balanced approach.  When seeking to do business in new markets, it is critical to fully understand the marketplace, in terms of potential opportunities, risks, regulations, and business practices.  Too often, the focus is primarily on the opportunity, which could result in significant challenges when inevitable difficulties surface.
  • Take a long term perspective.  Entering new markets should be viewed as an investment, not a whim.  Investments require the right research, strategy, and implementation plan, not only to generate success, but also to address challenges and mitigate risk.  Although this might sound obvious, companies tend to fall into the trap of focusing primarily on generating short term, positive results, an approach that puts an investment at risk once early days pass.
  • Conduct an integrity check.  Among the important issues of opportunity and risk is the manner in which business is done; call it values, basis of judgement, operating style.  The bottom line is that not everyone (or every place) has a style that is consistent with your own, which could lead to significant problems down the road.  Knowledge is key to determining whether or not the opportunity at hand is a place where you want to be, and finding this out after the fact could be too late.

Increase the likelihood of success by resisting the temptation to leap without looking, and instead, doing the necessary homework to make an informed decision and strategize accordingly.  There’s strength in recognizing that those who are first out of the gate aren’t always in the race for the long run; be sure to avoid this all too common pitfall.

Thanks for watching and see you in 2019!

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