Economy

September 8, 2020  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (September, 2020)

The Labour Day Long Weekend is a great time to be in my home studio for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, alongside Elmer Kim and Jennifer Hall, talking consumer debt levels, Walmart taking on Amazon, and flying cars (yes, you read that right!).

Here are some quick thoughts on our discussion.

As Canadians combat the challenges of a global pandemic, we’ve seen consumer debt levels increase, mostly due to mortgages: payment deferrals, refinancings, and rising house prices can all play into this.  Of note, there’s been a fair amount of renovation activity taking place over the “pandemic months”, which could contribute to higher housing prices, and perhaps, some enthusiasm to say yes to a new home.  Conversely, decreased mobility means less spending in areas such as travel, dining, and retail, offset by what was evidently a fair amount of online shopping.  Let’s see what the trends show over the Fall months.

Walmart is a familiar retailer in many communities, with millions of people living within a short drive of their local store.  The launch of Walmart Plus (occurring on September 15th in the US) could represent interesting competition for Amazon Prime.  Although slightly more expensive and with a free shipping threshold of over $35 dollars, Walmart Plus will include some perks of its own, such as in-store item scanning via the Walmart app and gas discounts.  This program should be part of a larger strategic plan to attract customers, with the potential Tik Tok acquisition providing a connection point to an important demographic.  On a personal note, the Walmart store in my area has provided a good quality shopping experience during times of COVID19 and the mask mandate has made safety considerations less of an issue.  We will have to stay tuned to see when this program will launch in Canada.

And finally, the successful launch of a flying car could bring some interesting applications to transportation and logistics (I have wanted a flying car, Jetsons’ style, since elementary school!).  Commercialization details will be important, including reliability, price, training, and applications, but in the meantime, let’s enjoy the fun of this story, as it’s been a while since we’ve been able to consider technology for the sheer accomplishment of what is possible (doing so almost seems like a return to normal).

Thanks for sharing your Long Weekend with us, and see you again soon!

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August 31, 2020  by

MEDIA: As the Canadian Emergency Business Account is Extended, What About the Rent?

Pleased to chat with the Canadian Press about today’s news of some of Canada’s COVID-19 business benefits programs being extended.  Although the Canadian Emergency Business Account (CEBA) loan program has been extended until October 31, 2020, the lack of movement on the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance (CECRA) program may have many small businesses wondering how they will meet their obligations of September 1st and beyond.

It shouldn’t be surprising that expenses pertaining to a company’s premises are among the most significant, with, perhaps, only payroll representing a larger monthly obligation.  COVID-19 has been a difficult period for companies of all sizes, and when CECRA was announced, the initial response was one of relief.  Part of the challenge with this program is that landlords must apply to participate, leaving tenants in difficult circumstances if this did not occur.  As at the end of July, 2020, just over $600 million in rent support had been provided, which is regarded as being well below the estimated program budget, expected to be in the billions of dollars.  It is a reasonable expectation that many in the small business community are working overtime, in terms of considering their future and just what steps should be taken.

As Summer, 2020 comes to a close, Canada is facing a lot of unknowns, as it relates to COVID-19.  With schools re-opening and the weather cooling, resulting in a movement indoors, a second, or even third wave of COVID-19 could occur.  Many communities across Canada have recently experienced an increase in COVID-19 rates, even after periods of relative calm.  How will small businesses chart this challenging territory in the months ahead?

We have already seen companies closing, unable to reach viability, or perhaps, simply not being up for operating in the new world of COVID-19.  As leases end, companies may choose not to renew, and large businesses will undoubtedly be reconsidering their future office needs, as a remote workforce may become the new reality in many cases.  Remember also that traffic at businesses such as retailers, restaurants, fitness centres, and personal services (spas, hairstylists, massage therapy, etc.) correlates with the level of consumer confidence: if people do not feel safe, they will stay home.  As we approach what could be the brink of a significant increase in commercial vacancies, will governments and the business community be left to wonder if enough was done in this regard, to help companies remain viable during the unprecedented days of 2020?  Stay tuned.

In the meantime, remember that advisors can help, not only through challenging times, but also to develop important strategies for your company’s future.

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July 6, 2020  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (July, 2020)

Back in the home studio for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, talking NAFTA 2.0, the Atlantic travel bubble, and Facebook advertisers, all hitting the streets in their own way.

Here’s a few thoughts on our discussion.

In a long overdue move, a number of large corporations are boycotting advertising on Facebook for the month of July, in protest of a lack of action against inaccurate, racist, and hateful content; Canada’s banks have joined this initiative.  Facebook appears to be defending its position, however, many are of the view that the Company hasn’t done enough to address longstanding content problems.  Dismissing concerns raised by citizens, corporations, and other groups may well land Facebook in a greater regulatory environment, and it’s fair to say that reasonable people can tell the difference between free speech and hate.  As the US election nears and the temperature continues to rise on a number of diversity issues, there is an opportunity to ask ourselves: what kind of world do we want to live in?  Let’s hope that this boycott is the beginning of a move towards much needed change.

In the category of “what a difference a year makes”, NAFTA 2.0 (or 2.1, depending how you look at it) quietly came into force on July 1st, reminding us that this was a high profile topic in 2019.  While companies continue to focus on COVID-19, industries that will be significantly impacted by new NAFTA provisions should have been actively planning for months, if not longer.  With just four months to the US election, it will be interesting to see what actions Donald Trump might take in an attempt to strengthen his position, given that his voters tend to respond well to a tone of putting other countries in their place.  Might we see tariffs or similar actions on the horizon?

And finally, the launch of the Atlantic travel bubble was met with long lineups and who can blame them?  In what is one of Canada’s most beautiful regions, this approach provides an opportunity for some much needed relief for local travel and tourism industries.  I am fortunate to spend time in Nova Scotia on a regular basis and can attest to the many things to see and do in Atlantic Canada; I hope that I will be able to travel to the Coast again soon!  In the meantime, I hope that local residents have a chance to visit friends and relatives or a place that they’ve been wanting to see or revisit for years.  These are the days to do just that; let’s make them good!

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Thanks for watching and see you again soon, CBC!

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July 3, 2020  by

MEDIA: So Many Questions, As the COVID-19 Commercial Rent Program is Extended

Pleased to chat with the Ottawa Bureau of The Canadian Press about the extension of the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance (CECRA) program.  Next to payroll, the most significant item for a company to fund is often its premises, be it by way of rent or a mortgage.  Whatever the structure, both of these represent cash outlays for a business.

COVID-19 has resulted in significant revenue declines for many, if not most companies; some have lost a relatively moderate percentage of income (say, 25%), while others have faced declines of 50% to 100%, in some cases.  Although wage subsidy programs have helped to retain staff, fixed expenses (including rent) represent a steep funding challenge for many small businesses.

CECRA’s structure requires landlords to apply, leaving many tenants in a tenuous and uncertain situation.  In the event that their landlord does not apply, for whatever reason, tenants may be left with some very difficult decisions to make about the future feasibility of their company.

An important question to consider is this: Who benefits when businesses are forced to close, simply because they are unable to cover all of their expenses due to the impact of a global pandemic?  Recognize that these unusual days will not last forever, and in the context of a company’s existence, may represent a short period of time.

When businesses fail, jobs and economic wealth are lost and their leased premises are left empty; this leaves landlords with rental spaces to fill, at the worst of times.  Financial partners who hold a mortgage on these properties might find their borrowers in a weakened financial position or in default, at which point, another important question comes to mind: Now what?

This is why the structure of these programs, in practical terms, is so important.  With what seems to be relatively low uptake of the CECRA program thus far, did the Federal government get it right?  Are landlords thinking carefully about the implications of not applying to the Program?  And where will the future of Canada’s small business community, the backbone of our economy, be left in all of this?

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May 25, 2020  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (May, 2020)

Pleased to join John Northcott and Elmer Kim for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, talking business in times of COVID19.

 

Our world has been living with COVID19 for much of 2020; here in Canada, the impact has been felt for months, as our communities and businesses have been essentially closed.  Here are some impacts:

  • Ongoing retail woes, with store closures, layoffs, and bankruptcy or creditor protection filings from various companies, including Victoria’s Secret, Bath and Body Works, Reitmans, J Crew, Hertz, and Neiman Marcus.  Although some retailers have been in a weak market position prior to COVID19, the closures in this sector only reinforce how difficult it is to remain connected with customers and the extent to which online shopping and service (or lack thereof) can impact a company’s market presence.  The significant decline in sales foreshadows what we can expect to see in the coming months, as the most recent numbers pertain to March (a decline of about 10%), which only reflects a portion of the true impact.
  • Support for big business, with the announcement of the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility (LEEFF), companies in need can apply to this “lender of last resort” program.  Although interest rates are relatively low, companies will have to comply with additional provisions, such as issuing warrants to purchase shares, adhering to executive pay caps, and providing the Government with observer status on the board of directors.  Although some might complain, in context, these provisions are not that unusual, given the level of risk.  It will be interesting to see the extent to which large companies (who are also large employers) access this program.
  • Re-opening with green in mind, as in excess of 150 companies have signed a statement supporting the future of business being in alignment with climate action.  Given the positive environmental impact that has been observed in recent months, as much of our world has been shut down for a period of time, it’s easy to understand the desire to capitalize on this situation.  Not sure there’s been much of a difference?  Have a look.  What new ideas and business practices might emerge from this movement and how sustainable will they be?

In the weeks ahead, I will be watching the level of progress that is made as communities re-open.  What will happen to COVID19 rates?  Will communities be able to move forward with the next stages of reopening or will they be forced to backtrack?  What changes will companies make to their business models?  How will consumer confidence levels be impacted?  How many companies will find that they do not have a way forward?

Thank you for watching and a special thanks to everyone who has been in touch to share their thoughts about the challenges that the business world is facing, their ideas and experiences, and support of our work.  It matters a great deal that you are thinking about your community and asking: what is working well, where are there challenges, and where do we need to know more in order to make good decisions.  In these days like no other, we can collaborate, we can care about companies in our community, as well as our families and friends, and, yes, we can be kind.

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April 16, 2020  by

MEDIA: Will COVID19 Change the Way We Do Business in the Future? (CJAD 800 AM)

Pleased to join Natasha Hall of CJAD 800 AM radio (Montreal) to discuss recent COVID19 developments and how it might change the way we do business in the future.  As business leaders and their staff members scramble to deal with the current challenge, it is an interesting question to consider what this experience might mean for the future.  Will work ever be the same again, or is the world of business forever changed?

Consider a few simple examples:

  • The “office job”, could lend itself well to working on a remote basis; but is it that simple?  Anyone who has managed a staff group remotely, such as in a different geographic location, can appreciate just how much this differs from managing a team that is under the same roof.  What are some areas that need to be addressed in order to do this effectively?
  • The “service job”, which could include a wide range of companies, such as wellness, food, and household services.  Many of these require interaction on a personal level, such as visiting a hair stylist, repair shop, or tailor, but will these companies face higher standards in the future, such as in terms of cleanliness and service delivery guidelines?  How will this impact how a business is managed?
  • The “user experience”, such as transportation, hospitality, and events.  Most of us are familiar with what it’s like to travel on a crowded plane, train, or bus or to spend time in a restaurant, hotel, or entertainment venue.  Will “personal space” or cleaning requirements change?  What could this mean for a company’s cost structure and viability going forward?

There are certainly some interesting areas to consider, that meet at the intersection of a company, its management, and customer/client base.  Given the experience of COVID19, it stands to reason that there will be an additional factor that could play a significant role: the notion of space, designed to protect people from that which could hurt them.  In this case, it’s protection from a global virus without a cure, one that has kept people isolated worldwide for weeks, months, maybe longer.

So, will COVID19 change the way that we do business in the future?  You can listen to our conversation here; with my thanks to Natasha Hall!

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December 16, 2019  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (December, 2019)

Closing out 2019 in studio for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, alongside Sherena Hussain and Natasha Fatah (aka The Women in Blue!).

Here’s what was on our Holiday Season menu:

  • New NAFTA Reaches the Finish Line:  As Canada, the US, and Mexico agree to some final revisions, what are the next steps for New NAFTA?  What does it mean for Canadian companies?
  • Compensation Rules for Flight Delays Kick In:  Air travel passengers in Canada will now have the potential for compensation in the event of some flight delays, but will it be meaningful?
  • More Ontario Cannabis Shops on the Way:  Removing the cap on the number of cannabis shops in Ontario might be an opportunity to better meet market demand, but are there other important considerations?

Negotiation of a new trade deal between Canada, the US, and Mexico has been unfolding over the past year and a half and has not been an easy task.  Given that Democrats control the House in the US, they were in a position to push for revision in order to support ratification and the countries were able to find agreement around clauses pertaining to dispute resolution, environmental, prescription drug, and labour provisions.  In particular, Mexico will have to take steps to improve the labour environment in that country, an area that has been contentious, given its ability to provide an inexpensive workforce and displace jobs.  Deals are one thing; it will be interesting, however, to see how well implementation occurs, once all countries have ratified what is effectively NAFTA 2.1.

Speaking from experience, we live in a world where air travelers tend to feel like they have no rights, especially in those moments when they are not treated particularly well (cue to the herding cattle analogy).  Air travelers are essentially at the mercy of airlines when delays happen, as there are limited alternative to get from one location to another.  Effective December 15, 2019, airlines will now have to compensate passengers in delay situations that are within their control, guidelines that likely have Canadians wondering if they are worth much, in practical terms.  It is important for passengers to know their rights when traveling, keep track of travel documentation, and ask airlines for clarification, when needed.  From a fairness perspective, good communication and transparency are important, however, too many of us know what it is like to be delayed in an airport with little in the way of information sharing.

As the cannabis industry continues to evolve, Ontario’s decision to remove the cap on retail shops is an area to watch.  Although studies indicate market demand, successfully operating a company is something that is quite different.  Business leaders too often make the mistake of thinking that a product alone makes a company, when nothing could be further from the truth.  We can all think of stores, restaurants, or coffee shops that opened too many locations, only to have to retrench to a more appropriate number; this type of downsizing can be onerous and expensive.  The same mistakes could be made here; this time, with a highly regulated product that requires special attention of its own.

As 2019 comes to a close, it’s a good time to be thankful for this past year.  It has been my pleasure to appear on the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, work that is both fun and a privilege.  Thanks for watching and see you in 2020, a year that is sure to bring a host of interesting developments, to say the least; stay tuned!

 

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November 25, 2019  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (November, 2019)

Great day to be in studio for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, alongside Mark Warner and John Northcott (for those who watched live, we had a bit of fun with a Coldplay walk on).

On tap for our discussion:

  • CN Rail Strike.  As the days tick by, this week’s CN Rail strike could have a considerable impact on the Canadian economy.  What should the next steps be to resolve the impasse?
  • Lowe’s Closes More Canadian Stores.  Posting disappointing financial results has led to Lowe’s closing more Canadian stores in an already competitive market.  Should we be surprised by this development and is more of the same on the way for the retail sector?
  • EasyJet Goes Carbon Neutral.  As interest in the environment continues to increase, airlines are considering how to offset their carbon footprint.  Will easyJet’s plan make a difference?

It’s no secret that Canada is a geographically vast country and logistics can be challenging, especially for some industries where there are limited options.  In an already uncertain global economic environment, delays in getting products to market or receiving essential supplies could start to snowball, financially impacting companies and our country.  Having said that, how long should the collective bargaining process have to reach a solution?  Both the company and its employees should be front and centre in situations like this, recognizing the essential nature of their service and the responsibility that goes along with it.

Consumers have lots of choice when procuring home improvement goods, be it online or in a host of retail options within their community.  A core aspect of this that doesn’t get as much time in the conversation as it should is service, as this is arguably a key driver in consumer behaviour.  A favourable retail experience, be it in a store or online, can directly impact whether or not a consumer makes future purchases, as well as the “story” that they share with others.  If stores are “under performing”  in a competitive environment, it is critical to understand why so that retailers can become more effective in these areas, in addition to right-sizing their offering.

In the category of the future is now, environment related stories continue to make news, the latest being easyJet’s plan to ensure that their flights are carbon neutral.  Although it’s difficult to argue with companies that adopt plans to help the environment (but, there are those who spend time doing so), it’s having a strategic approach that matters, including establishing tactics, milestones, and performance review guidelines.  It will be interesting to see of the aviation industry will work collaboratively to find industry solutions, thereby focusing more broadly than on individual companies; a world of opportunity awaits.

As 2019 moves into its final month, there are still many business stories to discuss.  I’ve made a prediction of what might be on the menu for my next studio visit; let’s see if I’m right.  Thanks for watching and see you in a few weeks, CBC!

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October 21, 2019  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (October, 2019)

The fun of live TV, combined with a busy news morning in advance of the Federal election, characterized this week’s CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel.  Standing by for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s press conference, Elmer Kim, John Northcott, and I chatted all things business, including what we didn’t see on the campaign trail.

Playbacks can make things interesting, and review of some of our commentary from September 14th, at the beginning of the campaign, puts areas where business concerns could have been better addressed into context.  Following the theory that politics and business “travel on parallel tracks”, it is often evident that governments and political parties do not fully appreciate the challenges of managing and growing a company (or just how much policies can negatively impact the real world).  One of the best things that governments can do is put business leaders in a position to focus on what matters, as opposed to on administrative burdens in areas such as taxation and regulatory matters; this approach provides the opportunity to fuel growth and progress.

How can this be achieved?  Although governments are likely of the view that they consult with business, the lack of focus on the issues that matter suggests that this isn’t done nearly enough.  Further, advisors and investors bring a wealth of knowledge and context, in terms of business strategies that work (and those that do not), as well as the trends and opportunities of the future.  It is this perspective that is integral to developing a long term strategy to build a greater number of companies that can be globally competitive, an opportunity of particular importance in our current world of economic and political uncertainty.

And a word about economic diversity, particularly in terms of Canadian regions where the focus has long since been on resources: diversity is a state of mind.  Regions that have a lengthy history of a business community and local economy that include a range of industries can appreciate how products, services, technologies, and human capital can reach across various applications, with a bit of tailoring.  Those who haven’t lived this experience might not see the opportunity or scoff at even looking for it (have seen this first hand), and it is in this reality where the state of mind that is diversity can take hold, for those who are willing to take the leap.  It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next couple of years, as it is progress that is already overdue.

In the meantime, business leaders need to have a range of plans for whatever the election results might be; this is simply good management.  Failure to do so puts a company at risk and in a reactive position, as opposed to the relative strength of being proactive.  In the event that the current predictions of a minority government come to pass, uncertainty might continue to unfold for a period of time; advisors can help companies to navigate forward in this type of environment.

Don’t forget to get out and vote on October 21st, as it is so important to do so.  Thanks for watching and see you again soon, CBC!

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September 16, 2019  by

MEDIA: CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel (September, 2019)

What an exciting weekend to be in studio alongside Elmer Kim and John Northcott, for the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel. With this week’s Federal election call, we were on hand to discuss all things business; here’s a sample:

Business leader priorities and key challenges they face. Given the highly uncertain global trade and business environment, Canadian companies have faced additional challenges beyond day-to-day operations; this is an area for candidates to be mindful.

Labour and workforce related issues. As the global economy evolves at a rapid pace, Canadian companies are challenged to remain competitive like never before. A party’s workforce and retention strategies are of key interest, as companies cannot be successful without these resources.

Business grants and fee reductions. Thus far, some platforms include grants to support startups and reduce some of the charges that companies typically face. Companies can always benefit from expense reductions, but in the case of emerging ventures, a critical issue is the shortage of growth capital for high potential businesses that are past the startup stage; will platforms address this specialized issue?

Incentives for certain sectors. Areas of interest include auto manufacturing and oil production, and although platforms might include tactics to maintain jobs, the bigger question relates to the undeniable evolution of sectors such as these. What steps should be taken to remain competitive?

Importance of debt/deficit reduction. A key question is how do voters view this area; are they concerned about the deficit, and if so, to what degree? An aspect to consider is viewing spending in the context of an investment, as compared to an expense, as the situation warrants.

Canada’s economy, growth rate, and trade. Current times are characterized by relatively strong economic performance and buoyed exports; success in this area can be difficult to deny. It will be interesting to see what the future holds for New NAFTA, a topic that seems to be getting more interest in recent days from Republican leaning people in the US than here in Canada.

Consumer issues, including housing, taxes, rebate programs, and wages. The appeal of these programs can have a lot to do with who you are, where you live, and how you live. How do regional differences impact policies and do voters think they should?

We’ll be watching the election campaign to see how the various platforms approach and impact business. Check back for more commentary, as the campaign moves forward!

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