Economy

Fortunate to have the opportunity to remember the victims of the September 11th terror attacks on air, alongside Elmer Kim and John Northcott.  On the 20th anniversary of the attacks that changed the world in many ways, this human tragedy is also a business story.  I recall the details of that day so clearly, and one of the things that I thought about was the many people who were simply going about their day to earn a living: the morning commute, getting a coffee, moments at their desk, greeting a colleague in the hallway, boardroom meetings “first thing”.  Others were travelling for work in the skies above; too many would not reach their destination.  As a career business person, I have done all of these things, often without a second thought.  How tragic it is that thousands of people would have these “normalcies” be the last moment of their lives.

September 11th gives me the feeling every year that the carefree days of Summer are gone in an instant, a door that slams shut with profound sadness.  We remember the victims today and every year on this day.

It is always positive to see the economy add jobs and beat expectations, however, given the realities of COVID19, it is difficult to know if this is merely a point on the curve or part of an overall growth trend.  The pandemic, unfortunately, continues to be very much a part of our communities and business environment, and as the Fall weather cools, the importance of taking recommended steps to combat COVID19 should not be lost.  Our economy is depending on Canadians to do the right things, to avoid cycling back to the days of business closures and other setbacks, as nobody wins when this happens.  Businesses are not measured by peaks and valleys, but rather, by the ability to survive over the long term; this is extremely difficult to achieve when the surrounding community is not healthy.

Related to this point, although it might sound like an obvious statement that companies need products and services to sell in order to be financially viable, the ability to do so in our current world is anything but a given.  Many companies are unable to get the materials that they need in order to manufacture products, with a prominent example being the semiconductor chip shortage,  This situation is multifaceted, as it is impacted by the high demand for technology, as well as geo-political and logistical factors.  Although not every situation can be resolved in the short term, business leaders need to bring creative solutions, as well as procurement options and strategies to manage customer expectations.  Having said that, the reality is that many consumers will simply have to wait until the shortage dissipates and expect to see higher prices, while businesses look for other options to resolve their own inevitable financial challenges.

Thank you for watching.  Today is a good day to do something to help others; we can all make a difference.

It’s the Federal Election edition of the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, talking all things business, alongside Jeanhy Shim, Rubina Ahmed-Haq, and Hillary Johnstone (personal finance, business, and the roof over your head, we had it all!).

It’s hard to imagine a strong economy without COVID19 being well under control, at a minimum.  A healthy society is an important foundation for a healthy economy, and it is a reasonable concern that Canada will not have the ability to truly move ahead until the days of the pandemic are in the rear view mirror, making this effort Job #1.  In the absence of doing so, communities face the risk of an ongoing cycle of relaxing measures and opening businesses, only to have to reverse course a short time later.  This is very difficult not only for Canadians, but also for business leaders who are trying to reach a point of some stability within their company.  Those who have been in business understand that “normal” times are challenging enough; the uncertainty and additional measures associated with COVID19 have left many companies in a precarious position, with others having closed up shop altogether (evident by driving around and noting all of the vacant storefronts).

This situation directly relates to jobs, as companies only need staff members when there is sufficient demand from the marketplace (customers) and they are able to operate (regulatory).  The third component of this equation is supply, in that companies need to be able to procure the necessary materials to deliver products and services.  Times of COVID19 have resulted in a global supply chain glut, making many products and manufacturing inputs significantly delayed or unavailable; the semiconductor chip shortage is one example.

There is also a shift occurring in the labour market as a whole, as people consider where work is available, as well as the type of role that they want to pursue.  Factors such as the increase in remote/flexible work environments, as well as the stress associated with front line sectors, such as healthcare, have led to shortages and hiring challenges; expect demand for education and training to increase in the coming months, as Canadians re-think their careers.  In the case if remote workers, this has resulted in some interesting developments in the housing market, as location is no longer reliant on the daily commute.

From a consumer perspective, the cost of so many things continues to rise, including food, household items, and housing.  While wage growth has not kept pace even in normal times, the gap between the super-wealthy and lower to mid-level workers has continued to increase, to a point of ridiculousness, in some cases.  The intent, obviously, should not be to have all people earning the same amount of money, but rather, to manage wage levels carefully (at the business level) and ensure that the tax system is fair (at the government level).  There have been too many situations of wealthy corporations and people paying little to no tax, while lesser earners pay their fair share.  Canadians also have good reason to question why some at the top of corporations received large bonuses, while being slow to increase employee wages and/or taking COVID19 business financial support at the same time.

This is the backdrop of the Federal Election, and as a business person, I first look for good ideas, with the source or party being of lesser relevance.  It is less than ideal to see party platforms that bring a “piecemeal” approach to policy, as people do not live their lives in this manner, nor do businesses operate this way.  This approach also raises the question if anything truly “gets fixed”, as opposed to utilizing one short term approach after another.  There also tends to be a disconnect between policy and implementation, with the latter being much more challenging than many in the political realm appreciate.  Experienced business leaders understand the importance of solutions that can be readily implemented and resolve problems, an important part of the foundation of a sustainable company going forward.

Thank you for watching, and remember that it’s important to vote to ensure that our voices are heard.  Ballots can be cast by mail this time, just apply to do so by September 14, 2021.

Call it the Olympic edition of the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, alongside Elmer Kim and Chris Glover.

• Canada’s July Jobs Report.  Although Canada added 94,000 jobs in July, this fell short of expectations.  What path is our country currently on?
• Canada’s Big Trade Surplus.  June saw a hefty $3.2 billion trade surplus, the most significant since 2008.  What is behind this number and is it as simple as rising oil exports?
• Canada About to Open its Border to the US.  As the border re-opening nears, there is a mix of interest and concern.  What might the implications be?

My commentary on the Weekend Business Panel over the past year has been consistent in expecting the COVID19 recovery to take time, with progress being anything but a straight line.  Although economic forecasts might consider jobs at a highlevel, it is important to remember that employment actually occurs on the front lines of business.  Companies only need people if they have goods and services to sell and customers that are willing and able to buy.  COVID19 has caused a host of disruptions, including at the supply chain, regulatory, financial, and operating levels.  It is also likely that employees who have choices (often those with an abundance of skill and experience) are reconsidering how they will work going forward.  Although applicability can vary by business type, many companies still have work to do in order to retain their best staff members, or risk losing them to employers with more flexible and organized work arrangements.  Expect this type of movement in the labour force to continue.

Although oil and energy exports contributed to Canada’s trade surplus in June, so did a decline in imports, something that can have a ripple impact.  When companies are not operating, they don’t need a lot of things; the same is true for consumers who have been inactive in areas such as office work, travel, events, kids’ sports, and so on.  Couple this with the much reported global logistical glut and plenty of questions arise about what the coming months will look like, in terms of areas such as business growth and consumer spending.

And, finally, although sectors such as tourism and events have been hard hit by the pandemic, it is a fair question as to how much benefit Canada’s border re-opening to some vaccinated Americans will bring.  With most of the Summer travel season in the rearview mirror, COVID variants circulating in the US, and some provinces doing away with mask and other safety mandates, it is understandable why many people are concerned.  It is also important to remember that vaccines are not yet available to children under the age of 12 years and their protection is critical.  As a business advisor, I can appreciate the significant experience and professional credentials that are required in order to fulfill my role.  Conversely, when those in the science and medical fields who specialize in pandemics and related areas express concern, it is wise to listen to their advice.  It will be interesting to see what the coming weeks and months will bring (hopefully, safety will prevail).

As always, thanks for watching, and see you again soon, CBC!

Summer begins with a busy news week on the CBC News Network Weekend Business Panel, alongside Jennifer Hall and Mark Warner.  Here’s an overview of the topics we discussed:

• Canada’s electric car push.  As the Liberal government speeds up the target for all light-duty vehicles sold in Canada to be electric to 2035, what could this mean for Canadians?
• Tourism woes have operators looking South.  In an industry that has been hit hard by the pandemic, it’s not surprising that there is a call to open the US border to benefit from the typically high travel Summer months.  What is the outlook for the border to open anytime soon?
• Amazon CEO moves on.  As Jeff Bezos leaves his role, how has Amazon changed the face of business?

As we weather the Summer heat, watch wildfires, and observe changing ocean levels, the topic of climate has become a daily consideration.  Advancing the target for all light-duty vehicles sold in Canada to be electric, from 2040 to 2035, raises issues beyond that of consumers.  Electric vehicles are part of a larger infrastructure, a system that includes manufacturing, charging, and maintenance, as well as the need to create a sustainable industry.  Integral to this is the ability to design vehicles that meet consumer needs well into the future; this includes all of the necessary parts, inputs, and expertise to make planning a reality.  Anyone who has an implementation background will recognize that this is not easy and requires a significant amount of effort and ability in order to achieve.  In the case of electric vehicles, the question isn’t “should we?”, but rather, “how?”.  This is a big, ongoing question that needs to be resolved in a robust and comprehensive manner.

As we greet Summer, 2021, everyone is understandably tired of living in a world of COVID19; but, here we are.  Vaccination has certainly helped to set the stage for communities opening up and returning to some form of normal, but the reality is, we are not there yet.  At the time of this writing, Canadian vaccination levels are approximately 70% (one dose) and 30% (two doses), raising the question: where is everyone?  In the US, although the double dose rate is higher (approximately 47%), it is concerning that only approximately 55% of Americans have received a single dose of a COVID19 vaccine.  It has been widely reported in the US that science and medical professionals are concerned about the percentage of Americans that will be vaccinated at all, given the relatively high degree of those who are either hesitant or resistant, making the question of what the “ceiling” could be of relevance.  Given that Canadians have worked hard to combat COVID19, for the most part, any considerations around opening the border should ensure that vaccination records of entrants can be reliably tracked; the health of our communities and economy are dependent on these types of reasonable safeguards.

And, finally, as Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos moves to the Executive Chair role and other ventures, including Space exploration through Blue Origin, living in times of COVID19 is a reminder of the value and importance of online shopping and logistics.  In contrast to the delivery trucks of days gone by, the use of technology to connect with consumers is an important difference, although there is still work to do in perfecting the model.  An important component is the role of workers in this new economy, many of which lack employment security and pursue various jobs to make ends meet.  There has always been an understandable income gap between business leaders and staff members, however, the times we are living in have pushed this to extremes, with the impacts being increasingly in full view.  Further, it is disappointing that diversity was not brought to the CEO role going forward; a missed opportunity to send an impactful message to both customers and staff members.  We are at the point where important questions should be asked about the world that we want to live in, with the experience of COVID19, perhaps, contributing to the prominence of this consideration.

Thank you for watching, and see you again soon, CBC!